{
  "task_id": "reaction-kinetics",
  "policy": "adaptive_classical",
  "policy_type": "classical, not an LLM",
  "estimator": "Finite-grid posterior over both mechanisms and 41x41 log-spaced rate pairs",
  "public_spec": {
    "task_id": "reaction-kinetics",
    "version": "0.2.0",
    "budget": 3,
    "cost_semantics": "Every accepted experiment costs one credit; at most two repeats per action. Invalid requests cost nothing. The budget is a hard constraint; unused credits do not directly increase the score.",
    "measurement_noise": "Independent additive zero-mean Gaussian noise per output and replicate, with the listed fixed standard deviations. Readouts are not clipped. Each measurement has equal synthetic exposure/cost. Repeating observe_initial returns the same initial data, not new measurements.",
    "split_definition": "Train and test use independent parameter/noise draws from the same published distributions. No claim of out-of-family generalization.",
    "status": "Original synthetic prototype; no physical calibration or LLM training result.",
    "submission": "Submit one finite numeric matrix in the exact prediction_shape. Submission is terminal and cannot be retried after acceptance.",
    "scoring": {
      "name": "inverse_normalized_mse",
      "formula": "score = 1 / (1 + mean(((prediction - noiseless_hidden_target) / scale)^2))",
      "scale": [
        0.02
      ],
      "range": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "meaning": "Higher is better. Exact latent-mean prediction scores 1. A normalized RMSE equal to one measurement-noise standard deviation scores 0.5. Measurement noise is not added to hidden targets."
    },
    "title": "Reaction mechanism identification",
    "outputs": [
      "concentration"
    ],
    "noise_std": [
      0.02
    ],
    "instructions": "Distinguish two idealized mass-conserving reaction mechanisms by choosing time/species assays under a three-credit budget. Predict the listed unmeasured early, middle and late time-course concentrations. Initial concentration and mechanism family are known; mechanism and rates are hidden.",
    "model": "Either sequential A -> B -> C with rates k1,k2, or parallel A -> B and A -> C with rates k1,k2. First-order irreversible kinetics, initial A=c and B=C=0; no physical calibration.",
    "prior": "Mechanism is equally likely. Rates k1,k2 independently log-Uniform(0.1,0.75), in inverse synthetic time units.",
    "initial_queries": [
      {
        "time": 0.5,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "prediction_queries": [
      {
        "time": 0.4,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 0.4,
        "species": "B",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 0.4,
        "species": "C",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 1.25,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 0.7
      },
      {
        "time": 1.25,
        "species": "B",
        "concentration": 0.7
      },
      {
        "time": 1.25,
        "species": "C",
        "concentration": 0.7
      },
      {
        "time": 3.5,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 3.5,
        "species": "B",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 3.5,
        "species": "C",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 7.5,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.3
      },
      {
        "time": 7.5,
        "species": "B",
        "concentration": 1.3
      },
      {
        "time": 7.5,
        "species": "C",
        "concentration": 1.3
      },
      {
        "time": 10.0,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 10.0,
        "species": "B",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      {
        "time": 10.0,
        "species": "C",
        "concentration": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "experiments": [
      {
        "id": "assay-A-0",
        "label": "Assay A at t=0.25",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.25,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-0",
        "label": "Assay B at t=0.25",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.25,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-0",
        "label": "Assay C at t=0.25",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.25,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-1",
        "label": "Assay A at t=0.75",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.75,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-1",
        "label": "Assay B at t=0.75",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.75,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-1",
        "label": "Assay C at t=0.75",
        "query": {
          "time": 0.75,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-2",
        "label": "Assay A at t=1.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 1.5,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-2",
        "label": "Assay B at t=1.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 1.5,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-2",
        "label": "Assay C at t=1.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 1.5,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-3",
        "label": "Assay A at t=2.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 2.5,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-3",
        "label": "Assay B at t=2.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 2.5,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-3",
        "label": "Assay C at t=2.5",
        "query": {
          "time": 2.5,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-4",
        "label": "Assay A at t=4",
        "query": {
          "time": 4.0,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-4",
        "label": "Assay B at t=4",
        "query": {
          "time": 4.0,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-4",
        "label": "Assay C at t=4",
        "query": {
          "time": 4.0,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-5",
        "label": "Assay A at t=6",
        "query": {
          "time": 6.0,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-5",
        "label": "Assay B at t=6",
        "query": {
          "time": 6.0,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-5",
        "label": "Assay C at t=6",
        "query": {
          "time": 6.0,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-A-6",
        "label": "Assay A at t=8",
        "query": {
          "time": 8.0,
          "species": "A",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-B-6",
        "label": "Assay B at t=8",
        "query": {
          "time": 8.0,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      },
      {
        "id": "assay-C-6",
        "label": "Assay C at t=8",
        "query": {
          "time": 8.0,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "cost": 1,
        "max_replicates": 2
      }
    ],
    "action_schema": {
      "type": "object",
      "properties": {
        "action_id": {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "assay-A-0",
            "assay-B-0",
            "assay-C-0",
            "assay-A-1",
            "assay-B-1",
            "assay-C-1",
            "assay-A-2",
            "assay-B-2",
            "assay-C-2",
            "assay-A-3",
            "assay-B-3",
            "assay-C-3",
            "assay-A-4",
            "assay-B-4",
            "assay-C-4",
            "assay-A-5",
            "assay-B-5",
            "assay-C-5",
            "assay-A-6",
            "assay-B-6",
            "assay-C-6"
          ]
        }
      },
      "required": [
        "action_id"
      ],
      "additionalProperties": false
    },
    "prediction_shape": [
      15,
      1
    ]
  },
  "initial": [
    {
      "query": {
        "time": 0.5,
        "species": "A",
        "concentration": 1.0
      },
      "values": [
        0.7708817736901392
      ],
      "noise_std": [
        0.02
      ]
    }
  ],
  "experiments": [
    {
      "action": {
        "action_id": "assay-B-6"
      },
      "observation": {
        "query": {
          "time": 8.0,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "values": [
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        ],
        "noise_std": [
          0.02
        ],
        "action_id": "assay-B-6",
        "replicate": 1,
        "cost": 1,
        "budget_remaining": 2
      }
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    {
      "action": {
        "action_id": "assay-B-3"
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      "observation": {
        "query": {
          "time": 2.5,
          "species": "B",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "values": [
          0.5660535418299361
        ],
        "noise_std": [
          0.02
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        "action_id": "assay-B-3",
        "replicate": 1,
        "cost": 1,
        "budget_remaining": 1
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    },
    {
      "action": {
        "action_id": "assay-C-6"
      },
      "observation": {
        "query": {
          "time": 8.0,
          "species": "C",
          "concentration": 1.0
        },
        "values": [
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        "noise_std": [
          0.02
        ],
        "action_id": "assay-C-6",
        "replicate": 1,
        "cost": 1,
        "budget_remaining": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    [
      0.8303421662826806
    ],
    [
      0.1658008294975793
    ],
    [
      0.0038570042197400758
    ],
    [
      0.3916735640416568
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    [
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    [
      0.022535400851408344
    ],
    [
      0.19724404973825743
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    [
      0.6308029874277591
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    [
      0.17195296283398356
    ],
    [
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    [
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    [
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    [
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    [
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  ],
  "result": {
    "score": 0.8385970454327486,
    "normalized_mse": 0.19246783117863384,
    "rmse": 0.008774231161272966,
    "numeric_overflow": false,
    "experiments_used": 3,
    "budget_remaining": 0,
    "terminal": true
  },
  "transcript": {
    "task_id": "reaction-kinetics",
    "version": "0.2.0",
    "events": [
      {
        "type": "initial",
        "observations": [
          {
            "query": {
              "time": 0.5,
              "species": "A",
              "concentration": 1.0
            },
            "values": [
              0.7708817736901392
            ],
            "noise_std": [
              0.02
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "experiment",
        "action": {
          "action_id": "assay-B-6"
        },
        "observation": {
          "query": {
            "time": 8.0,
            "species": "B",
            "concentration": 1.0
          },
          "values": [
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          "noise_std": [
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          "action_id": "assay-B-6",
          "replicate": 1,
          "cost": 1,
          "budget_remaining": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "type": "experiment",
        "action": {
          "action_id": "assay-B-3"
        },
        "observation": {
          "query": {
            "time": 2.5,
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            "concentration": 1.0
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          "values": [
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          "noise_std": [
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          "action_id": "assay-B-3",
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          "cost": 1,
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        }
      },
      {
        "type": "experiment",
        "action": {
          "action_id": "assay-C-6"
        },
        "observation": {
          "query": {
            "time": 8.0,
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            "concentration": 1.0
          },
          "values": [
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          "noise_std": [
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          "action_id": "assay-C-6",
          "replicate": 1,
          "cost": 1,
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      },
      {
        "type": "submission",
        "predictions": [
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        "result": {
          "score": 0.8385970454327486,
          "normalized_mse": 0.19246783117863384,
          "rmse": 0.008774231161272966,
          "numeric_overflow": false,
          "experiments_used": 3,
          "budget_remaining": 0,
          "terminal": true
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      }
    ]
  },
  "selection_note": "Upper median score among all completed adaptive-classical runs, selected for illustration after evaluation; not an LLM rollout or a best run."
}